Source and cost methodology
This research illustration uses GAO publications dated 2021–2025 and expressly distinguishes a source fact from a modeled scenario or future result.
Evidence boundary
Only findings reported in linked GAO publications are displayed as source facts. Agency administrative records are not yet uploaded. A published finding does not establish an iCARE outcome.
Agency hierarchy
NIH belongs to HHS and OVW belongs to DOJ. Cross-agency totals must deduplicate parent and component records. DOJ-wide JustGrants inquiries cannot be attributed solely to OVW.
Solving 4(y) through 2027
For four disjoint pathways, 4(y;T) = E[Σ N(i,t) × g(i,t) × c(i,t) × a(i,t)]. N is the number of eligible events in the window through December 31, 2027; g is a measured gap rate; c is incremental federal cost per gap event; a is the causally avoidable fraction under the applicable iCARE, TRACER, or B.E.A.T. intervention. The expected value must preserve uncertainty and correlation. Do not double count NIH within HHS or allocate DOJ-wide events to OVW.
Dollar classification
GAO-reported appropriations or obligations are spending, not a loss estimate. Overlapping programs can be complementary; an inquiry does not by itself establish taxpayer waste. Report a tax-dollar loss only for measured incremental federal cost attributable to the defined gap and compared with a credible counterfactual. The current four pathways lack the complete N, g, c, and a inputs, so each and the combined projection are not estimable—not zero.
GAO research path
SSE proposes a 90-day scoping engagement to seek agency-authorized event records, process-level staff and contractor costs, program boundaries, privacy controls, and a predeclared comparison design. Produce ranges and sensitivity analysis. TRACER licensing is a separately priced follow-on option subject to GAO’s independent assessment, procurement, and security review.
Source publications: GAO-23-105656, GAO-25-107020, GAO-21-540, GAO-26-107502, GAO-24-106501.